Independent Voters Predicting Republican Midterm Edge

Newly released polling data shows that independents expect Republicans to do well on election day.

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Convention of States Action, along with the Trafalgar group, released the polling data, which showed that 60.1% of independents “believe their friends and neighbors will vote for Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections,” compared to 30.5% for Democrats.

On top of that, they say their friends are concealing who they will vote for because of social pressure with 66.3% of surveyed independents “believe their friends and neighbors are afraid to express their views about who they will vote for in the 2022 midterm elections. 33.7 percent say their neighbors are not afraid.”

This comes as election day is just days away and most polls show Republicans making gains in Congress.

“Our pollster Robert Cahaly is famous for having devised a method to ask voters what they themselves think by asking what their neighbors think, and we wanted to apply that principle to understanding how voters feel in the current climate. 60 percent of Independents appear to be breaking for Republicans in this poll, and interestingly that’s about the same number who are afraid to say who they’ll vote for,” said Mark Meckler, President of the Convention of States. “This indicates that the theory of the ‘submerged voter’–voters so concerned about people finding out who they voted for that pollsters cannot detect them–will come into play in this midterm in a major way.”


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