Poll: If Election Were Today, Republicans Would Win Big

After a major loss for in the recent Virginia election, Democrat lawmakers are scrambling to avoid devastating midterm losses.

The latest polling shows Republicans are far ahead of Democrats just one year out from the next major election.

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“The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 51% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 38% would vote for the Democrat,” Rasmussen said. “Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure.”

For comparison, in January 2018–before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years–Democrats held an eight-point advantage (45% to 37%) in the generic ballot question. According to Rasmussen, “that margin narrowed as the November 2018 midterms neared, and was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans maintained control of the Senate.”

Democrats have taken major losses in the polls in part because of President Joe Biden, who has watched his approval rating plummet amidst sky high inflation and gas prices, not to mention a deadly withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The 13-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a wide advantage among independents,” Rasmussen said.

While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s candidate, only 77% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 48% would vote Republican and 26% would vote Democrats, with another 17% undecided.

 

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