The smart money is increasingly looking at the odds of a Trump win in November.
According to a new report by quantitative analyst Marko Kolanovic at JP Morgan Chase, the President is seeing an increase in his chances of being elected for a second term. In a new report, Kolanovic writes that while “certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, …we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue.”
The Trump momentum is, in part, a result of the violent protests in cities across the country. The JP Morgan report considers the academic work of Princeton professor Omar Wasow to examine the historical effect of protests and violence on Presidential elections–including the 1968 election of President Richard Nixon who ran on a law and order platform. The media’s interpretation of these protests has had a significant influence on the outcome of elections.
Historically, Democrat candidates benefit by 2-3 percentage points when the protests are viewed as peaceful, while Republicans gain anywhere from 2-8 points if the protests are portrayed as violent. Meanwhile, given today’s social media marketplace, the public need not rely on the institutional media’s representation and interpretation of these events and, as such, voters will make their own determination as to whether recent demonstrations are either peaceful or violent.
Meanwhile, the report also stresses the inherent bias in polls already conducted, concluding that Trump voters are less likely to be truthful with pollsters. This is certainly something we have seen evidence of in recent years…most significantly, in 2016. Remember? All the polls indicated that 2016 would be a win for Hillary Clinton with even the exit polls on election day suggesting she would win. Bottomline, people were afraid to tell pollsters the truth.
“We find that this ‘cancel culture’ effect could artificially skew polls in favor of Biden by 5-6%,” Kolanovic writes.
Indeed, a recent survey from Cato found that self-censorship is on the rise in the U.S. with 62% of people saying they have political views they are afraid to share and, conservatives were the most fearful to share their views.
Meanwhile, Wall Street isn’t the only one speculating about another Trump win…the documentary filmmaker Michael Moore recently tweeted “DANGER!”
He told his followers that, “someone needs to pull the fire alarm NOW.”
Yes, the President may indeed win again. This is fundamentally because Americans share a common interest in the preservation of property…in maintaining law and order…and in providing the most opportunity to the most number of people. Right now, the rapid political correctness of the left, coupled with an increase in violence in the streets, is causing many, many people to question the leadership of the Democrat Party and Joe Biden.